Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Paul 53.9% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 54.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 86.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 67.3%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Lowry
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Lowry
Paul
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
4
Lowry
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Lowry
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
53.1% (710)
-3.8%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
57.3% (199)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
58.0% (69)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Lowry
Paul
Home
50.2% (671)
56.0% (466)
Away
47.8% (709)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Lowry
Paul
P1
48.4%
57.2%
P2
50.1%
54.9%
P3
47.8%
51.5%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 16:45 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 12:07 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 17:25 | Offensive | Nick Paul |