Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Paul 53.3% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 75.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 66.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 55.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Lowry
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Lowry
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
53.2% (327)
+2.2%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
61.4% (57)
+21.9%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
50.0% (32)
-9.6%
On power play, Lowry has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Lowry
Paul
Home
54.5% (402)
54.6% (183)
Away
53.3% (368)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Lowry
Paul
P1
52.4%
56.3%
P2
56.0%
54.8%
P3
54.2%
52.4%
OT
40.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
58.1%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |