Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 72.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Lowry
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Lowry
O'Reilly
Last 8: Lowry 4-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Lowry
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
55.4% (826)
+0.0%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
57.9% (221)
+25.4%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
50.4% (129)
-10.0%
On power play, Lowry has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Lowry
O'Reilly
Home
54.5% (402)
55.8% (579)
Away
53.3% (368)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Lowry
O'Reilly
P1
52.4%
57.7%
P2
56.0%
54.8%
P3
54.2%
54.3%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.1%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |