Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 58.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 91.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 70.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Lowry
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Lowry
O'Reilly
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
9
Lowry
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
56.2% (983)
-2.5%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
55.5% (254)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
52.0% (102)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Lowry
O'Reilly
Home
53.0% (583)
56.2% (697)
Away
50.6% (605)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Lowry
O'Reilly
P1
52.1%
54.5%
P2
51.8%
55.5%
P3
52.3%
57.1%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |