Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 14-13 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 70.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 84.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 58.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Lowry
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
14
(27 meetings)
13
14
Lowry
O'Reilly
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
8
Lowry
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
8
2
Lowry
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Lowry
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
55.0% (1,084)
-5.7%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
56.8% (303)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
40.3% (149)
+2.3%
On power play, Lowry has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Lowry
O'Reilly
Home
50.2% (671)
54.8% (759)
Away
47.8% (709)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Lowry
O'Reilly
P1
48.4%
55.3%
P2
50.1%
51.9%
P3
47.8%
54.2%
OT
66.7%
64.7%
Final 5 min
43.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:01 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 14:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:23 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 19:24 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 03:35 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 15:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 14:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |