Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 53.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Lowry
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Lowry
O'Reilly
Last 9: Lowry 5-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Lowry
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
56.1% (690)
-3.4%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
64.6% (96)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
45.9% (109)
-5.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Lowry
O'Reilly
Home
52.4% (597)
58.3% (408)
Away
48.4% (583)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Lowry
O'Reilly
P1
48.5%
57.7%
P2
52.2%
54.8%
P3
50.5%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 12:36 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 03:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 02:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 18:07 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 09:12 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 03:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |