Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.6% vs 56.9%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Lowry wins 59.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 57.0% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 16-8 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 69.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Lowry
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
16
(24 meetings)
8
16
Lowry
O'Reilly
Last 10: Lowry 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
8
Lowry
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
2
Lowry
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
6
Lowry
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (843)
57.1% (1,367)
+1.5%
Power Play
65.0% (20)
59.4% (286)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (253)
52.5% (257)
+1.3%
On power play, Lowry has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lowry is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Lowry shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Lowry
O'Reilly
Home
61.0% (602)
59.2% (936)
Away
53.7% (514)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Lowry
O'Reilly
P1
57.3%
57.3%
P2
58.1%
57.5%
P3
57.4%
55.0%
OT
50.0%
71.1%
Final 5 min
61.4%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 14:32 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 07:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2 | 14:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2 | 08:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2 | 04:32 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 1 | 14:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 1 | 12:49 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 1 | 12:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 00:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |