Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Hertl 57.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 76.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Lowry
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Lowry
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Lowry
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
58.1% (823)
-2.7%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
56.2% (265)
+27.1%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
62.9% (35)
-22.5%
On power play, Lowry has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hertl
Home
54.5% (402)
59.7% (561)
Away
53.3% (368)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Lowry
Hertl
P1
52.4%
51.6%
P2
56.0%
63.8%
P3
54.2%
58.6%
OT
40.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
58.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | OT | 04:09 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |