Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Hertl 54.5% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 91.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 74.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Lowry
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Lowry
Hertl
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
7
Lowry
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.4%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
59.8% (296)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
34.4% (32)
+5.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hertl
Home
52.4% (597)
54.3% (709)
Away
48.4% (583)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Lowry
Hertl
P1
48.5%
51.6%
P2
52.2%
53.6%
P3
50.5%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.4%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 18:15 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 15:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |