Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 28 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 28-21 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 82.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 61.6%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Lowry
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
28
(49 meetings)
21
28
Lowry
Hertl
Last 10: Lowry 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
21
Lowry
Hertl
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
10
1
Lowry
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
6
Lowry
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
53.8% (8,268)
-1.0%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
59.3% (1,975)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
46.3% (806)
-1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hertl
Home
53.5% (5,893)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Lowry
Hertl
P1
51.5%
53.6%
P2
51.8%
54.1%
P3
51.4%
55.3%
OT
46.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
52.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | OT | 04:09 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:11 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 3 | 13:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 10:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 09:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |