Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 52.5%). Look for Lowry on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Hertl 52.3% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 62.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Lowry
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Lowry
Hertl
Last 10: Lowry 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
2
Lowry
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
51.6% (1,084)
+4.2%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
61.0% (246)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
44.1% (136)
-1.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lowry is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Lowry shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hertl
Home
53.4% (515)
55.2% (696)
Away
52.6% (549)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Lowry
Hertl
P1
54.2%
55.4%
P2
54.4%
54.8%
P3
50.8%
48.9%
OT
37.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 10:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 00:33 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2021 | OT | 00:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 17:35 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 17:24 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 12:18 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |