Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Hertl 56.8% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 59.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 84.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 70.5%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Lowry
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Lowry
Hertl
Last 7: Lowry 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Lowry
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Lowry
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
57.0% (718)
-7.7%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
64.9% (188)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
44.2% (77)
-1.6%
On even strength, Hertl has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hertl
Home
50.2% (671)
59.2% (463)
Away
47.8% (709)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Lowry
Hertl
P1
48.4%
56.3%
P2
50.1%
55.4%
P3
47.8%
60.5%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 3 | 13:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 10:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 09:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |