Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 59.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 57.0% vs Hertl 51.4% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.4%
Defensive zone
Lowry 86.6%
Neutral zone
Lowry 76.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Lowry
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Lowry
Hertl
Last 5: Lowry 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (843)
51.7% (869)
+6.9%
Power Play
65.0% (20)
55.7% (176)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (253)
44.9% (138)
+8.9%
On power play, Lowry has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lowry is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Lowry shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hertl
Home
61.0% (602)
51.8% (583)
Away
53.7% (514)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Lowry
Hertl
P1
57.3%
52.5%
P2
58.1%
50.9%
P3
57.4%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
53.3%
Final 5 min
61.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 03:36 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 00:52 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 1 | 10:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 1 | 08:05 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |