Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 47.5% vs Johnson 48.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 53.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 56.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 57.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Lowry
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lowry
Johnson
Last 5: Lowry 1-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
2
Lowry
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
2
Lowry
Johnson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (783)
49.5% (828)
-2.5%
Power Play
57.1% (28)
54.9% (142)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (40)
36.8% (133)
+8.2%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Lowry is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (276).
Lowry shoots left. Johnson is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (728).
Home / Away
Lowry
Johnson
Home
49.2% (425)
50.7% (564)
Away
45.3% (426)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Lowry
Johnson
P1
53.6%
51.2%
P2
39.8%
47.5%
P3
48.5%
48.4%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.0%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
47.2%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2015 | 2 | 17:46 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 17:40 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 2 | 17:53 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |