Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Seguin 55.4% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 73.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 60.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 50.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Lowry
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Lowry
Seguin
Last 6: Lowry 4-2 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
56.5% (712)
-0.7%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
59.7% (67)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
44.9% (49)
-2.6%
On power play, Seguin has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Lowry is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Lowry shoots left. Seguin is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
Lowry
Seguin
Home
53.4% (515)
58.5% (402)
Away
52.6% (549)
53.8% (426)
By Period
Lowry
Seguin
P1
54.2%
58.4%
P2
54.4%
54.7%
P3
50.8%
54.1%
OT
37.5%
72.7%
Final 5 min
54.2%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 00:48 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 01:33 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 19:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 02:57 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 14:21 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 1 | 16:11 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |