Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.7% vs McDavid 47.9% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 79.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 88.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 87.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 82.4%
17.6%
82.4%
Kempe
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Kempe
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
0
Kempe
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
1
0
Kempe
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
38.2% (102)
47.5% (650)
-9.3%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
48.6% (72)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
46.5% (43)
-21.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Kempe
McDavid
Home
36.4% (66)
50.2% (400)
Away
35.5% (76)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Kempe
McDavid
P1
37.3%
47.5%
P2
36.7%
48.6%
P3
31.4%
46.7%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.9%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:43 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |