Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 52.2%). Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Barkov wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 53.0% vs Paul 52.2% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 17-16 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 64.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 57.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.6%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Barkov
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
17
(33 meetings)
16
17
Barkov
Paul
Last 10: Barkov 7-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
7
1
Barkov
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
7
7
Barkov
Paul
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
9
Barkov
Paul
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (10,680)
52.5% (3,796)
-0.1%
Power Play
58.1% (2,623)
56.5% (480)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (1,272)
46.7% (574)
+1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barkov is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,144).
Barkov shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Barkov
Paul
Home
53.8% (7,227)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
52.2% (7,348)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Barkov
Paul
P1
52.7%
53.9%
P2
53.4%
51.0%
P3
52.9%
52.0%
OT
53.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
53.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 08:03 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:17 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:07 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 10:00 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:34 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 1 | 08:40 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2 | 18:27 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |