Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Barkov wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.5% vs Paul 53.4% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 56.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 52.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Barkov
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Barkov
Paul
Last 10: Barkov 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
5
1
Barkov
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Barkov
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (863)
53.8% (753)
-0.7%
Power Play
63.4% (276)
58.9% (90)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (193)
47.4% (78)
+3.4%
On power play, Barkov has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barkov is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (844).
Barkov shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Barkov
Paul
Home
58.1% (627)
54.2% (450)
Away
52.1% (705)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Barkov
Paul
P1
53.3%
58.2%
P2
55.0%
50.6%
P3
56.0%
52.9%
OT
60.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 10:00 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:34 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 1 | 08:40 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2 | 18:27 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |