Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Paul 50.4% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 70.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 74.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 62.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Barkov
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Barkov
Paul
Last 5: Barkov 2-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
2
0
Barkov
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Barkov
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
53.0% (644)
+4.0%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
37.5% (24)
+26.3%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
42.9% (177)
+5.4%
On power play, Barkov has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barkov is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Barkov shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Barkov
Paul
Home
59.2% (557)
52.5% (516)
Away
55.1% (695)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Barkov
Paul
P1
56.7%
47.6%
P2
54.8%
48.4%
P3
59.7%
54.5%
OT
55.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 13:53 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 1 | 08:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |