Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Barkov wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.7% vs Paul 53.9% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 66.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 52.6%
Neutral zone
Barkov 56.0%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Barkov
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Barkov
Paul
Last 5: Barkov 4-1 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
2
0
Barkov
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (740)
53.1% (710)
+3.8%
Power Play
63.3% (256)
57.3% (199)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (104)
58.0% (69)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barkov is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Barkov shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Barkov
Paul
Home
57.4% (540)
56.0% (466)
Away
57.1% (560)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Barkov
Paul
P1
57.6%
57.2%
P2
56.6%
54.9%
P3
56.9%
51.5%
OT
72.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:17 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:07 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |