Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Paul 50.0% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 75.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 74.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 56.2%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Barkov
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Barkov
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Barkov
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
48.8% (666)
+6.7%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
53.8% (65)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
60.0% (55)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Barkov
Paul
Home
56.4% (550)
49.7% (348)
Away
56.7% (476)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Barkov
Paul
P1
56.5%
51.0%
P2
55.5%
47.4%
P3
57.9%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 08:03 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Nick Paul |