Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.0% vs Paul 51.0% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 56.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 75.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 62.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 66.6%
33.4%
66.6%
Barkov
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Barkov
Paul
Last 6: Barkov 0-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Barkov
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
4
Barkov
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (851)
53.5% (312)
-0.9%
Power Play
60.8% (286)
53.8% (26)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
47.0% (66)
29.4% (34)
+17.6%
On penalty kill, Barkov has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barkov is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (776).
Barkov shoots left. Paul is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Home / Away
Barkov
Paul
Home
54.4% (653)
45.8% (153)
Away
54.2% (550)
55.0% (220)
By Period
Barkov
Paul
P1
52.7%
55.9%
P2
57.6%
48.9%
P3
53.2%
50.0%
OT
35.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.5%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 11:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 04:45 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 04:36 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |