Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Barkov wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.5% vs Cates 40.4% (+15.4%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 96.4%
Defensive zone
Barkov 87.2%
Neutral zone
Barkov 92.8%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 93.5%
93.5%
6.5%
Barkov
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
6
(20 meetings)
14
6
Barkov
Cates
Last 10: Barkov 8-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
9
1
Barkov
Cates
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barkov
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Barkov
Cates
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (863)
40.4% (841)
+12.7%
Power Play
63.4% (276)
42.4% (66)
+21.0%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (193)
32.7% (147)
+18.1%
On power play, Barkov has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Barkov is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (844).
Barkov shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Barkov
Cates
Home
58.1% (627)
38.2% (566)
Away
52.1% (705)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Barkov
Cates
P1
53.3%
40.5%
P2
55.0%
42.4%
P3
56.0%
35.3%
OT
60.9%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.5%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 15:47 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 13:21 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 18:05 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 13:35 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 01:28 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 08:08 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:30 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 10:21 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 08:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 3 | 05:52 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2 | 17:18 | Offensive | Noah Cates |