Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Cates 45.1% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 91.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.8%
Neutral zone
Barkov 66.8%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Barkov
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Barkov
Cates
Last 10: Barkov 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
6
0
Barkov
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Barkov
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Barkov
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
46.7% (912)
+8.8%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
33.9% (56)
+28.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
35.0% (137)
+11.7%
On power play, Barkov has a +28.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Barkov
Cates
Home
56.4% (550)
46.1% (521)
Away
56.7% (476)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Barkov
Cates
P1
56.5%
48.0%
P2
55.5%
42.3%
P3
57.9%
44.3%
OT
50.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
58.7%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:52 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:03 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:51 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 12:47 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 09:36 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |