Aleksander Barkov vs Ryan O'Reilly
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.5% vs 55.7%). Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 59.5%
Defensive zone
Barkov 51.8%
Neutral zone
Barkov 50.2%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Barkov
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Barkov
O'Reilly
Last 10: Barkov 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
2
1
Barkov
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Barkov
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
Barkov
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
56.2% (983)
-0.7%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
55.5% (254)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
52.0% (102)
-5.3%
On power play, Barkov has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Barkov
O'Reilly
Home
56.4% (550)
56.2% (697)
Away
56.7% (476)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Barkov
O'Reilly
P1
56.5%
54.5%
P2
55.5%
55.5%
P3
57.9%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:00 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 05:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 01:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:07 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |