Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 59.0% vs right-shot opponents — Jarvis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.7% vs Jarvis 45.8% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 92.4%
Defensive zone
Barkov 62.1%
Neutral zone
Barkov 84.7%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Barkov
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Barkov
Jarvis
Last 8: Barkov 6-2 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
4
0
Barkov
Jarvis
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barkov
Jarvis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (740)
46.2% (171)
+10.7%
Power Play
63.3% (256)
51.9% (54)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (104)
39.4% (127)
+5.8%
On power play, Barkov has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Barkov is 59.0% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Barkov shoots left. Jarvis is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Barkov
Jarvis
Home
57.4% (540)
46.1% (204)
Away
57.1% (560)
42.6% (148)
By Period
Barkov
Jarvis
P1
57.6%
42.5%
P2
56.6%
42.9%
P3
56.9%
48.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:08 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 03:49 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 10:12 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 16:56 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |