Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Newhook wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Newhook 42.1% vs Nelson 48.3% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Newhook 63.4%
Defensive zone
Newhook 50.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.0%
Result
Alex Newhook favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Newhook
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Newhook
Nelson
Last 10: Newhook 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Newhook
3
2
Newhook
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Newhook
2
1
Newhook
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
4
Newhook
Nelson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Newhook
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (1,922)
47.9% (9,695)
-6.4%
Power Play
43.8% (208)
54.5% (1,132)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (17)
43.8% (783)
+3.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Newhook is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,311).
Newhook shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Newhook
Nelson
Home
41.6% (1,061)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
42.0% (1,086)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Newhook
Nelson
P1
39.9%
48.7%
P2
41.9%
48.5%
P3
43.1%
47.7%
OT
80.0%
45.6%
Final 5 min
43.6%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Newhook
40.0%▬
40.0%
41.8%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | Alex Newhook |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:09 | Defensive | Alex Newhook |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Alex Newhook |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 15:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 01:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Alex Newhook |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Alex Newhook |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 04:52 | Offensive | Alex Newhook |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |