Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tuch wins 38.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 41.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tuch 70.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 53.7%
Neutral zone
Tuch 62.7%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Tuch
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Tuch
Hertl
Last 10: Tuch 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
2
1
Tuch
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Tuch
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tuch
2
0
Tuch
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
38.7% (481)
53.8% (8,268)
-15.1%
Power Play
43.1% (204)
59.3% (1,975)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (111)
46.3% (806)
-3.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tuch is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (641).
Tuch shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Tuch
Hertl
Home
42.1% (394)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
38.8% (402)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Tuch
Hertl
P1
44.7%
53.6%
P2
40.6%
54.1%
P3
36.0%
55.3%
OT
27.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
39.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
40.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 04:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 16:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 09:24 | Neutral | Alex Tuch |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Alex Tuch |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 1 | 06:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 3 | 10:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 12:46 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |