Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kerfoot on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Kerfoot leads 14-2 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Dowd 53.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 73.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Kerfoot
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
2
(16 meetings)
14
2
Kerfoot
Dowd
Last 10: Kerfoot 9-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
7
0
Kerfoot
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Kerfoot
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
6
0
Kerfoot
Dowd
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (2,831)
52.4% (6,009)
-3.7%
Power Play
48.7% (265)
56.1% (164)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (389)
44.1% (1,635)
-4.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kerfoot is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,375).
Kerfoot shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Dowd
Home
51.0% (1,786)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
44.3% (1,699)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Kerfoot
Dowd
P1
47.2%
51.7%
P2
46.0%
50.4%
P3
50.4%
50.3%
OT
29.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
47.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:13 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:25 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 10:13 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 19:32 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 05:32 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 05:05 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 2 | 01:49 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |