Alexander Wennberg vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Wennberg wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.3% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Wennberg 50.1%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 80.7%
Neutral zone
Wennberg 59.6%
Result
Alexander Wennberg favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Last 10: Wennberg 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
9
Wennberg
MacKinnon
13 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Wennberg
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wennberg
4
3
Wennberg
MacKinnon
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (778)
50.0% (992)
-4.2%
Power Play
52.7% (239)
64.9% (148)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (169)
34.4% (32)
+2.9%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Wennberg is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (354).
Wennberg shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Home
47.3% (607)
53.3% (591)
Away
44.6% (579)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Wennberg
MacKinnon
P1
44.5%
49.9%
P2
46.2%
53.2%
P3
47.4%
50.8%
OT
36.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
50.0%▼
51.5%
46.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:53 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:42 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 06:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 18:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:56 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:42 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 15:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:55 | Neutral | Alexander Wennberg |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:17 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |