Alexander Wennberg vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Wennberg wins 39.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 47.7% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 10-1 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Wennberg 55.8%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 63.8%
Neutral zone
Wennberg 58.6%
Result
Alexander Wennberg favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
10
(11 meetings)
1
10
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Last 10: Wennberg 1-9 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wennberg
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
8
Wennberg
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Wennberg
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (777)
49.2% (1,266)
-1.3%
Power Play
51.0% (202)
54.9% (193)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (90)
49.1% (55)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Wennberg is 39.9% vs right-shot opponents (283).
Wennberg shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Wennberg
MacKinnon
Home
47.2% (489)
50.9% (740)
Away
47.8% (580)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Wennberg
MacKinnon
P1
47.1%
50.9%
P2
48.1%
51.8%
P3
47.5%
47.1%
OT
45.5%
58.8%
Final 5 min
48.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
50.0%▼
51.5%
47.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 02:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 18:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |