Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Wennberg wins 39.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 47.7% vs Dowd 49.9% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wennberg 85.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 87.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Wennberg
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Wennberg
Dowd
Last 8: Wennberg 4-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wennberg
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Wennberg
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wennberg
2
1
Wennberg
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (777)
52.2% (835)
-4.3%
Power Play
51.0% (202)
60.0% (10)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (90)
44.0% (350)
-7.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Wennberg is 39.9% vs right-shot opponents (283).
Wennberg shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Dowd
Home
47.2% (489)
51.5% (619)
Away
47.8% (580)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Wennberg
Dowd
P1
47.1%
51.7%
P2
48.1%
51.6%
P3
47.5%
47.0%
OT
45.5%
22.2%
Final 5 min
48.2%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
50.0%▼
51.5%
47.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2024 | OT | 00:20 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 17:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |