Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Wennberg on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wennberg wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.3% vs Dowd 49.1% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wennberg 69.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 78.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 59.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Wennberg
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Wennberg
Dowd
Last 8: Wennberg 5-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wennberg
3
0
Wennberg
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
3
Wennberg
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (778)
51.7% (644)
-5.9%
Power Play
52.7% (239)
0.0% (2)
+52.7%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (169)
41.6% (221)
-4.3%
On power play, Wennberg has a +52.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Wennberg is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (354).
Wennberg shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Dowd
Home
47.3% (607)
48.6% (451)
Away
44.6% (579)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Wennberg
Dowd
P1
44.5%
49.1%
P2
46.2%
47.3%
P3
47.4%
51.4%
OT
36.4%
30.0%
Final 5 min
45.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
50.0%▼
51.5%
46.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 16:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 07:24 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 01:58 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |