Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +22.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lafrenière wins 30.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafrenière 40.4% vs Dowd 48.3% (-22.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafrenière 96.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 73.4%
Neutral zone
Lafrenière 70.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Lafrenière
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Lafrenière
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Lafrenière
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafrenière
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
24.6% (65)
49.2% (778)
-24.6%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
58.3% (12)
+41.7%
On power play, Lafrenière has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Lafrenière is 30.0% vs right-shot opponents (20).
Lafrenière shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Lafrenière
Dowd
Home
25.0% (24)
46.3% (492)
Away
26.2% (42)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Lafrenière
Dowd
P1
16.1%
49.1%
P2
30.4%
48.2%
P3
41.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
25.0%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafrenière
24.0%▼
29.5%
25.8%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 01:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |