Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +19.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lafrenière wins 27.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafrenière 36.5% vs Dowd 50.8% (-19.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafrenière 94.9%
Defensive zone
Lafrenière 52.0%
Neutral zone
Lafrenière 80.2%
Result
Alexis Lafrenière favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Lafrenière
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lafrenière
Dowd
Last 5: Lafrenière 1-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lafrenière
1
0
Lafrenière
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Lafrenière
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafrenière
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (260)
52.6% (5,850)
-20.7%
Power Play
32.1% (28)
56.1% (164)
-24.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
43.9% (1,600)
-43.9%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +43.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Lafrenière is 27.2% vs right-shot opponents (92).
Lafrenière shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (5,015).
Home / Away
Lafrenière
Dowd
Home
32.0% (128)
52.1% (3,753)
Away
31.7% (161)
49.6% (3,862)
By Period
Lafrenière
Dowd
P1
28.4%
51.9%
P2
34.3%
50.7%
P3
32.9%
50.1%
Final 5 min
29.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafrenière
24.0%▼
29.5%
31.8%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 01:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Alexis Lafrenière |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |