Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +24.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cogliano wins 30.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 39.5% vs Hertl 56.8% (-24.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cogliano 63.9%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 79.3%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 79.2%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Cogliano
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Cogliano
Hertl
Last 6: Cogliano 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Cogliano
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cogliano
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
35.8% (53)
57.0% (718)
-21.2%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (110)
44.2% (77)
-12.4%
On even strength, Hertl has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cogliano is 30.6% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Cogliano shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Hertl
Home
40.9% (88)
59.2% (463)
Away
24.0% (75)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Cogliano
Hertl
P1
38.2%
56.3%
P2
28.6%
55.4%
P3
34.2%
60.5%
OT
28.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
33.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | OT | 01:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | OT | 00:49 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 14, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |