Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cogliano wins 39.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 41.2% vs Hertl 54.2% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cogliano 80.1%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 84.8%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 86.0%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 82.8%
82.8%
17.2%
Cogliano
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Cogliano
Hertl
Last 8: Cogliano 1-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Cogliano
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cogliano
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cogliano
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (1,486)
53.8% (8,268)
-12.1%
Power Play
42.0% (88)
59.3% (1,975)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (502)
46.3% (806)
-7.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cogliano is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,400).
Cogliano shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Hertl
Home
43.4% (1,069)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
38.1% (1,034)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Cogliano
Hertl
P1
41.2%
53.6%
P2
37.7%
54.1%
P3
43.6%
55.3%
OT
41.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
38.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
40.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | OT | 01:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | OT | 00:49 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 14, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 12:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |