Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Copp wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 53.2% vs Hayes 56.3% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 58.9%
Defensive zone
Copp 62.5%
Neutral zone
Copp 58.5%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Copp
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Copp
Hayes
Last 7: Copp 2-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Copp
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
3
Copp
Hayes
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Copp
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (833)
56.6% (724)
-2.5%
Power Play
77.5% (40)
57.0% (79)
+20.5%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (128)
65.7% (35)
-23.5%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Copp is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (606).
Copp shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Copp
Hayes
Home
51.9% (511)
58.0% (405)
Away
55.3% (490)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Copp
Hayes
P1
54.1%
54.7%
P2
54.2%
55.7%
P3
52.5%
60.2%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
53.5%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 18:56 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 3 | 01:12 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 16:59 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |