Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Evans 52.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 70.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 73.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 52.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Cirelli
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cirelli
Evans
Last 6: Cirelli 3-3 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Cirelli
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Evans
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
54.4% (807)
-3.5%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
55.0% (20)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
46.1% (310)
-2.1%
On power play, Evans has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Cirelli is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Cirelli shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Evans
Home
50.6% (494)
53.7% (581)
Away
47.6% (441)
50.5% (556)
By Period
Cirelli
Evans
P1
52.3%
54.6%
P2
45.4%
50.0%
P3
49.5%
52.3%
OT
62.5%
46.7%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 17:12 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 01:39 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 11:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |