Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.0% vs Staal 54.7% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 80.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 88.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 76.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 82.0%
18.0%
82.0%
Cirelli
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Cirelli
Staal
Last 7: Cirelli 6-1 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
0
Cirelli
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Cirelli
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (600)
56.2% (939)
-5.9%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
66.9% (139)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
43.5% (239)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Cirelli shoots left. Staal is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (922).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Staal
Home
54.2% (395)
55.4% (663)
Away
44.8% (496)
54.7% (654)
By Period
Cirelli
Staal
P1
50.3%
54.9%
P2
50.0%
55.1%
P3
46.9%
54.0%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
48.0%▼
53.0%
48.9%
Staal
50.0%▼
52.5%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 14:29 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:07 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:00 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:27 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |