Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Staal 54.6% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 77.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 85.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 70.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 78.4%
21.6%
78.4%
Cirelli
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Cirelli
Staal
Last 7: Cirelli 6-1 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
0
Cirelli
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Cirelli
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
56.1% (955)
-5.7%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
66.9% (142)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
43.0% (242)
-6.5%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Staal
Home
54.2% (395)
55.4% (663)
Away
45.0% (509)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Cirelli
Staal
P1
50.8%
55.1%
P2
50.0%
54.7%
P3
46.6%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 14:29 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:07 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:00 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:27 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |