Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Staal 54.2% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 65.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 59.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.7%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Cirelli
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cirelli
Staal
Last 6: Cirelli 3-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Cirelli
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
57.0% (1,017)
-7.1%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
57.7% (26)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
45.1% (286)
+3.6%
On even strength, Staal has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Staal
Home
46.7% (649)
54.3% (667)
Away
53.5% (643)
54.7% (662)
By Period
Cirelli
Staal
P1
50.1%
56.2%
P2
51.1%
57.0%
P3
48.5%
49.7%
OT
64.3%
68.4%
Final 5 min
49.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:24 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:27 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:20 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:13 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:56 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 13:20 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |