Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 49.0%). Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Dowd 49.1% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 73.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 74.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 54.4%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Cirelli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cirelli
Dowd
Last 6: Cirelli 3-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Cirelli
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Cirelli
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
51.7% (644)
-1.3%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
0.0% (2)
+69.9%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
41.6% (221)
-5.1%
On power play, Cirelli has a +69.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cirelli is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (301).
Cirelli shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Dowd
Home
54.2% (395)
48.6% (451)
Away
45.0% (509)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Cirelli
Dowd
P1
50.8%
49.1%
P2
50.0%
47.3%
P3
46.6%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |