Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 49.9%). Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Dowd 49.9% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 82.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.1%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Cirelli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cirelli
Dowd
Last 5: Cirelli 1-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Cirelli
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
52.2% (835)
-2.3%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
60.0% (10)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
44.0% (350)
+4.7%
On power play, Dowd has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cirelli is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (462).
Cirelli shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Dowd
Home
46.7% (649)
51.5% (619)
Away
53.5% (643)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Cirelli
Dowd
P1
50.1%
51.7%
P2
51.1%
51.6%
P3
48.5%
47.0%
OT
64.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
49.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |