Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 48.8%). Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 60.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 55.9%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 50.7%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Cirelli
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Cirelli
Bjugstad
Last 6: Cirelli 2-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Cirelli
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Cirelli
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
48.9% (280)
+1.5%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
50.0% (6)
+19.9%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
47.2% (36)
-10.7%
On power play, Cirelli has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Cirelli is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (301).
Cirelli shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Bjugstad
Home
54.2% (395)
48.4% (190)
Away
45.0% (509)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Cirelli
Bjugstad
P1
50.8%
41.7%
P2
50.0%
56.6%
P3
46.6%
48.7%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 08:59 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 02:50 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |