Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.4% vs Carrick 52.1% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 82.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 55.8%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 63.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Cirelli
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Cirelli
Carrick
Last 6: Cirelli 1-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Cirelli
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Cirelli
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (5,684)
52.1% (2,513)
-2.3%
Power Play
56.9% (571)
61.3% (75)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,196)
50.7% (430)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Cirelli is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,851).
Cirelli shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Carrick
Home
49.6% (3,763)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Cirelli
Carrick
P1
49.9%
51.8%
P2
48.8%
52.2%
P3
49.2%
52.4%
Final 5 min
50.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:45 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 1 | 09:25 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 02:04 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |