Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Lundell wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Matthews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 51.6% vs Matthews 58.8% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Lundell 84.1%
Defensive zone
Lundell 82.4%
Neutral zone
Lundell 90.5%
Result
Anton Lundell favored at 86.2%
86.2%
13.8%
Lundell
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
14
(19 meetings)
5
14
Lundell
Matthews
Last 10: Lundell 4-6 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
5
Lundell
Matthews
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Lundell
Matthews
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
6
Lundell
Matthews
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (786)
59.8% (848)
-7.1%
Power Play
52.6% (152)
64.9% (37)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (182)
56.3% (87)
-9.0%
On power play, Matthews has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Lundell is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Lundell shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Lundell
Matthews
Home
51.0% (574)
60.0% (520)
Away
52.6% (546)
59.3% (452)
By Period
Lundell
Matthews
P1
52.9%
60.2%
P2
55.8%
58.2%
P3
47.1%
60.4%
OT
46.2%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 01:18 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 12:38 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 05:51 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 07:16 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 18:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:14 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |