Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lundell on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lundell wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Matthews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 52.7% vs Matthews 56.3% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Lundell leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 73.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 89.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 78.2%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 79.1%
20.9%
79.1%
Lundell
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Lundell
Matthews
Last 10: Lundell 8-2 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
3
2
Lundell
Matthews
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
3
0
Lundell
Matthews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
3
1
Lundell
Matthews
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (804)
58.3% (943)
-3.7%
Power Play
50.6% (81)
55.7% (61)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
50.7% (219)
-5.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Lundell is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (701).
Lundell shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Lundell
Matthews
Home
51.2% (527)
59.1% (528)
Away
54.8% (496)
55.1% (695)
By Period
Lundell
Matthews
P1
53.7%
56.2%
P2
51.7%
58.1%
P3
54.1%
56.4%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.0%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:50 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 02:54 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 12:37 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |