Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.3%). Look for Lundell on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Lundell wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 54.4% vs Paul 53.9% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 53.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 56.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Lundell
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Lundell
Paul
Last 9: Lundell 5-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Lundell
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
5
2
Lundell
Paul
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (768)
53.1% (710)
+1.2%
Power Play
65.6% (61)
57.3% (199)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (49)
58.0% (69)
-7.0%
On power play, Lundell has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lundell is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Lundell shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Lundell
Paul
Home
57.3% (450)
56.0% (466)
Away
52.3% (428)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Lundell
Paul
P1
54.3%
57.2%
P2
58.2%
54.9%
P3
52.0%
51.5%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
54.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 12:19 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:01 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:23 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 19:23 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:20 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 05:48 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |