Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Czarnik wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 45.9% vs Paul 50.4% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 63.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 86.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 72.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 86.1%
13.9%
86.1%
Czarnik
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Czarnik
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Czarnik
2
0
Czarnik
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (57)
53.0% (644)
-14.4%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
37.5% (24)
-37.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
42.9% (177)
+57.1%
On penalty kill, Czarnik has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Czarnik is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (41).
Czarnik shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Paul
Home
36.2% (47)
52.5% (516)
Away
50.0% (12)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Czarnik
Paul
P1
50.0%
47.6%
P2
31.8%
48.4%
P3
37.5%
54.5%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
21.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
39.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Austin Czarnik |